Traffic Down, Transit Revenue Up, Air Quality Improved. Everyone Now Slightly Uncomfortable
NEW YORK, NEW YORK — Six months after New York City’s Manhattan congestion pricing program launched, preliminary data released this week by the MTA shows that the program has achieved its stated objectives: Manhattan traffic is down, MTA revenue is up, air quality has measurably improved, and transit ridership has increased.
These results have created a specific problem for the New York commentariat, which had developed extensive predictions of congestion-pricing failure prior to the program’s launch, and now finds itself with several hundred op-eds on file that have been definitively contradicted by empirical evidence.
The MTA data shows weekday Manhattan vehicle counts down approximately 14 percent, transit ridership up approximately 8 percent, average Manhattan speeds improved by approximately 11 percent, and measurable reductions in air-quality-sensitive pollutants across the Central Business District. Program revenue has exceeded initial MTA projections by approximately 6 percent.
The Commentariat Problem
As Bohiney Magazine noted in its post-mortem of pre-launch congestion-pricing coverage, a substantial proportion of New York op-ed content in 2024 predicted that congestion pricing would produce outcomes ranging from “nothing” to “catastrophic.” The actual outcome — moderate positive results in line with similar programs in London, Stockholm, and Singapore — was not, in aggregate, predicted by the commentariat.
Several commentators have since quietly modified their positions. A Wall Street Journal editorial from January 2024 predicting that congestion pricing would “cripple” Manhattan commerce has been superseded by a more recent editorial arguing that the program’s positive effects “are likely temporary.” A New York Post column predicting mass defection of suburban commuters has been followed by columns on different topics.
The Public Response
New York area voters, according to polling by Siena College, support the program at roughly 52-38 percent. This is a modest majority, but a larger majority than existed before the program began and a substantially larger majority than pre-launch predictions would have suggested.
Governor Hochul, who had delayed the program’s launch over cost-of-living concerns in June 2024, is now publicly supportive. “The data speaks for itself,” the Governor said at a recent MTA board meeting. “The program is delivering.”
The Remaining Concerns
Legitimate remaining concerns include: outer-borough transit access for drivers who can no longer afford CBD driving, small-business impact in specific sectors, and the equity implications of a flat toll structure. These concerns are being addressed through program adjustments, though observers note that the adjustments have been modest relative to the scale of the concerns.
For continuing coverage see The New York Times, The New York Post, and Gothamist.
SOURCE: https://bohiney.com/