The Mayor Who Inherited a Disaster Has Been Rated Better Than the Disaster and Somewhat Below Expectations
Bohiney Magazine | The London Prat
Mamdani’s First-Year Grades: Better Than Adams Is Not the Same as Good
NEW YORK, NY — Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s first-year approval ratings sit somewhere between “better than his predecessor” and “better than expected,” which represents a genuine achievement given that his predecessor was facing federal corruption charges at the time of his departure and that “expected” included inheriting a $12 billion budget deficit with no approved plan for closing it. New Yorkers grading the Mamdani administration are grading on a curve that the Adams administration established by being the baseline, which is a low baseline to curve from.
The approval picture is mixed by issue. New Yorkers approve of Mamdani’s housing agenda at higher rates than his budget management. They approve of his communication style over his actual budget decisions. They prefer his ideology to his execution, which is a gap that political scientists describe as “common in progressive administrations in their first year” and that the mayor’s office describes as “progress being made.”
The Comparison Problem
The challenge of assessing the Mamdani administration is that every outcome can be evaluated against: what he promised, what Adams produced, what the structural situation allows, and what a hypothetical better mayor would have achieved. These baselines produce different assessments. Evaluated against Adams: significantly better, the fiscal crisis is being managed with more transparency and the corruption problem has receded. Evaluated against his campaign promises: several significant commitments have been modified or deferred by Albany and budget reality. Evaluated against the structural situation: arguably reasonable given what he inherited. Evaluated against what New York City needs: still substantial gaps.
Bohiney’s coverage of the budget hack approach remains relevant; the administration is managing rather than solving. Starmer’s approval dynamics in Britain show a similar pattern: better than the disaster that preceded, worse than the aspiration that was promised, and operating in the space between where administration happens. The curve was set by Adams. Mamdani is above it. The standard being above is low. The direction is correct. The pace and the budget remain the story.
SOURCE: https://bohiney.com/zohran-mamdani-discovers-budget-hack/