No matter how you spin it, Apple wants Apple TV+ to be a success and attract a portion of the company’s growing user base to subscribe (estimated to top 1-billion). $5 a month, minus a penny, is not much money as streaming video subscriptions go, but the total numbers could be impressive.
Danny Vena thinks Apple TV+ could hit 100-million subscribers in a year. After all, Disney+ gathered 10-million subscribers the first day, and Apple is giving a one-year subscription to Apple TV+ with every new iPhone, iPod touch, Mac, Apple TV, and iPad.
What are those numbers?
Apple does not hand out unit sales anymore but we can guesstimate as well as anyone else.
How about 150-million iPhones, 40-million iPads, 20-million Macs, 1-million Apple TV, 10-million Apple Watch, and 1-million iPod touch?
I counted over 220-million new products but some of those will be duplicate customers, so let’s go with another figure Apple divulged– about 100-million new customers a year.
Add those numbers to actual Apple TV+ subscribers, and, yes, Apple could end the first year with 100-million paid and non-paid subscribers. None of that means extra revenue for Apple until free subscriptions have switched over to paid subscriptions, so we can expect the iPhone maker to launch more video content over the next few years.
After all, Apple ain’t Netflix or Disney. Apple started from scratch.
Disney+ is a different animal and the only connection to a customer base– in the sense that Apple has a billion customers– is the brand and the content. The Disney brand is Apple class, of course, but even the new streaming video service starts with nearly 640 TV shows and movies, and more than 7,500 episodes.
For $6.99 a month. Compare that to Apple’s few dozen at $4.99 a month and you can see why Apple is buying time with a free one-year subscription.
Nobody knows– yet– which company will end up with the most streaming video customers Disney’s 10-million is impressive until you realize that Apple already has sold perhaps 30-million new hardware– Mac, iPhone, iPad, iPod, Apple TV– in just the past couple of months.
From a revenue and profit perspective, 100-million subscribers a year from now will mean much more to Disney than to Apple.